Sit and Sleepers for Week 5

Discussion in 'Member Introductions' started by zhangzk, Feb 13, 2019.

  1. zhangzk


    TKF Newbie
    Jan 10, 2018
    Fantasy Football: Who to Start Authentic Jameis Winston Jersey , The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears are both on byes, so there’s no fantasy football wave to try and ride against the Bucs defense or by rolling with quarterback, Mitch Trubisky.Week 4 of the NFL brought a lot of fun as usual, but we saw guys like the aforementioned Chicago quarterback rise to the top of the fantasy stats like never before.So, how did our own projections do?QUARTERBACK (0/3): Ouch. We took some chances, and unfortunately they just didn’t pay off. It always seems Philip Rivers will disappoint when you start to count on him, and while he did come in at QB14, it’s not starting position scoring. Derek Carr responded to his first benching of the season by putting up QB4 numbers and 32-points. Eli Manning is the eternal sleeper, and he just didn’t wake up this past weekend as he failed to crack the Top-20.RUNNING BACK (3/3): A little bit of redemption with this group. Ezekiel Elliott finished the past week at RB2 with his 33-points and had a five point gap between himself and the next highest scoring back. Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen made good on our projection that the second of the two would be the man to play against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cohen finished with 30-points - good enough for RB5 - while Howard had just three.RECEIVERS (2/3): Dallas Cowboys fans may have been a bit offended seeing our advice to sit all of their receivers, but the advice proved sound as the highest scoring wide receiver - Cole Beasley - landed at WR53 for Week 4 with just nine points. Geoff Swaim was able to outscore them all, but still didn’t land high enough for us to regret the advice. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce rewarded the start advice with a TE4 performance and once again we had the right team for our tight end sleeper, just not the right player. Atlanta’s Logan Paulsen came through for his team while Austin Hooper landed at TE27.DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS (3/3): We got the defensive battle we needed when the Jaguars and Jets faced off as the first defense was labeled our starter for the week and the second was our sleeper. Jacksonville came in at D/ST7 and the Jets were D/ST9. Can’t get much more right than that. Unfortunately for Broncos fans, their defense also made good on our projection as their Monday Night letdown sat them at D/ST24 for Week 4.TOTAL (67%): We’re steadily over the 65% mark for each week, meaning the majority of our projections are landing true. Quarterback had been a stable position of projection coming into Week 4, but a goose-egg may shake our confidences a bit heading into Week 5. Bold predictions in the running back and defensive positions proved fruitful.On now, with the current week’s projections!QUARTERBACKSCharles LeClaire-USA TODAY SportsSTART: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Atlanta Falcons)The Falcons defense has been decimated by injury Youth Demar Dotson Jersey , and opposing quarterbacks are the biggest benefactors. The Steelers won’t miss Le’Veon Bell this week and ‘Big Ben’ will have a big day.SIT: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (vs Los Angeles Rams)I don’t know if there’s a much worse situation for Russell Wilson to go into from a fantasy standpoint. The offense just isn’t all that good, and the defense isn’t either. Losing Earl Thomas ahead of facing the Rams is terrible too. Wilson is taking his team with a compromised defense, a less than stellar supporting cast overall, and going up against a team which sees him twice every year and has one of the best defenses in the league.SLEEPER: Alex Smith, Washington Redskins (@ New Orleans Saints)I’m not sure if the Saints will ever get their defense figured out at this point. It felt like this was a year they’d actually be solid, but they’ve underwhelmed up to this point.Still, the Redskins offense hasn’t exactly been a powerhouse themselves. This week could be different though, and Smith has a few weapons he could use to exploit this defensive unit.RUNNING BACKSMark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY SportsSTART: Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins (@ New Orleans Saints)Doubling down on our quarterback sleeper pick, this running back should benefit greatly in this match-up.If wide receivers like Jamison Crowder can get some chunk plays, it’ll open up room for Thompson to operate underneath and give him lanes to run through as well.SIT: T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Kansas City Chiefs)I know. He’s starting in place of the often injured Leonard Fournette. Still, the Jaguars picked Fournette in the Top-10 in 2017 for a reason. The reason is Yeldon could never produce consistently.SLEEPER: Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers (vs Oakland Raiders)I know this isn’t a division match-up, but I just feel like the Chargers will want to beat the Raiders a little bit more than they would a lot of other teams.Ekeler has paired nicely with fellow running back Melvin Gordon, and this is a week I feel like the team could really look to exploit the benefit each brings to the field.RECEIVERS (WR/TE)Brad Penner-USA TODAY SportsSTART: Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants (@ Carolina Panthers)He’ll score his first touchdown of the year. He’ll score his first two , even.SIT: Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons (@ Pittsburgh Steelers)The predictable arrival of Calvin Ridley and the presence of both Falcons running backs will only take Matt Ryan’s eyes off of Hooper. Hard hitting linebackers won’t help matters.SLEEPER: Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans (@ Buffalo Bills)Davis was one of the best prospects coming out of college two years ago, and he’s starting to show why. In this one, fantasy owners are going to need to be patient, but as the Bills defense is on the field longer and longer, Davis is going to come up with some clutch receptions at the end of this one.DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMSRon Chenoy-USA TODAY SportsSTART: Denver Broncos (@ New York Jets)This is sort of a sleeper pick, because it’s not so much how Denver plays defense, but more about how the Jets play offense.SIT: Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Kansas City Chiefs)If there’s a defense out there which can stifle the Chiefs’ offense, it’s this one. But they won’t stifle them enough to make you happy you started them in fantasy.SLEEPER: Tennessee Titans (@ Buffalo Bills)I’m going to have an itchy finger looking to click start on every team facing the Bills offense this season. Including this one.The Bucs are leaving yards and points on the field Everyone has blind spots.If you’ve been around Bucs Nation for a while, or followed me or Steven Beck on Twitter, you’ve undoubtedly read and talked about the Bucs’ offensive struggles in the first quarter, and first half. It’s a table that’s been pounded for years now, a dead horse beaten into dust. Besides the overarching context of the proliferation of the spread taking hold of the NFL right now, there’s a much simpler trend staring the NFL in the face: it’s much easier and better to throw on first down. Believe it or not, but NFL teams often do things that don’t make any sense. All good coaches self-scout their own tendencies and work to improve. But football coaches can also be slow to change. Those that don’t adapt, or don’t adapt quickly enough, will find themselves without a job sooner rather than later. But we’re all human. We all have strengths and weaknesses Lavonte David Jersey , and even the best of us can tend to be stubborn, or ignorant, or just blind to our own failings. Such may be the case with the offensive staff of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This isn’t just a single-year thing. For the last two years (and almost certainly all three years Dirk Koetter has been with Tampa Bay) the Bucs have run two-thirds of the time on first downs in the first quarter of games despite the fact that the pass was more than twice as effective. The problems with this are numerous, but the bottom line is those who do have the ability to self-scout can find and create advantages over those that can’t. Those advantages can turn into wins.It’s a 1990s-era philosophy; run the ball on first down to protect your (young) quarterback. Except the evidence has shown for some time now that the only real way to protect a quarterback is to do the opposite and throw. Because when the run isn’t successful you just end up putting even more pressure on your quarterback. But there are practical reasons as well.Let’s look at this from a tangible perspective. If we take the last two seasons, on first down in the first quarter and factor out Ryan Fitzpatrick and QB runs, the Bucs have run approximately 146 times for 3.42 yards per rush and 500 yards and passed 70 times for 8.2 yards per attempt and 511 yards for a total of 1,011 yards. Half as many attempts for the same yards. If the playcalling had been reversed, the Bucs would have rushed for 239 yards and passed for 1,197 yards for a total of 1,436 yards. We’re talking about a loss of approximately 400 yards over the last two seasons. That may not seem like a lot, but the best yards per drive ranking last season belonged to the Patriots at 39.23 yards. The Bucs were seventh at 33.48 yards per drive and fifth in drive success rate. So it’s not like we can say that throwing those yards away wouldn’t have mattered. In just 2017 the Bucs left as much as a possible 215 yards on the field. That’s almost six and a half more drives worth of yardage. Even assuming the Bucs kept their average sixteenth-place points-per-drive rate of 1.82, that’s eleven more points last season. That also doesn’t sound like much, but the Bucs were 3-7 in one-score games last season, and lost four straight games in December by a combined fifteen points.Pass until you make the defense respect it, and then run. The NFL is difficult enough without throwing games away.